Thursday, August 26, 2010

Using the Map

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Lets Map Nairobis ATMs!!

Here's how to do it, it takes about five minutes.

Think of an ATM, any ATM :-)

On your PC open up your browser and go here ~

You should see this

Go to the Upper right hand corner and sign in

Once you're in, go over to the pane on the left and click edit

A new menu should appear on the top left hand corner of the map itself,

Click on the blue placemark and move it to the location you thought of in step one above, the building with the ATM.

Once you set it down, you should see this:-

Fill in the details like my friend Geoffrey did here below, save it and your done.

Which details?
Well, is it a deposit taking ATM? Can you withdraw money via M-Pesa? Is it VISA/Mastercard branded? Is it part of the Kenswitch network? Anything that someone may find useful.

To view the map on your cellphone, you need to install Google Maps for mobile. It works of just about any phone.

Go to on your phone and follow the instructions

Go to layers> browse layers > My Maps > ATM locator and there!! Your ATMs will be on the Map, available to all, for free!!

And all it took was five minutes of your time!

Big heads up to Lamzana , without whom this would never have happened, Thank you!!


This whole Safaricom thing got me thinking after @MainaTs tweet. What is the effect of

Safaricom reducing its tarriffs on its bottom line?

Well. Heres my completely unprofessional, paper napkin analysis based on Safaricoms results announcement, a huge (30MB) PDF file which you can find here:

Hopefully someone will build on this.

OK, first things first, lets assume:
1. No change in subscribers (or their peculiar habits) i.e subscriber numbers remain constant
2. No change in consumption and consumption patterns, so the number of minutes remains constant as does the ratio on on to off net calls

OK, The statistics now, page (or slide) 21, Total Gross revenue is 83 Billion, Page 22 breaks it down so we have 63 Bilion of this attributable to voice. Thats roughly 75%

Back to page 21. Net profit is 15 Billion. 75% of this is 11 Billion.

OK, page 10, Safaricom has roughly 16 Million subscribers.

11 Billion divided by 16 million subscribers... Thats Ksh 688 per subscriber (On Page 22 Safaricom reports a voice ARPU of Ksh.356 so I may be wrong)

Lets further assume that the tarrif was Ksh. 8 per minute, Ksh.688 divided by Ksh. 8 per minute gives you an average of 86 minutes per user per year (a very rough approximation complicated by the Supa Ongea "dynamic tarriff" nonsense)

Lets use the new tarrif, Ksh 3 x 86 minutes per user, per year x 16 million users.

That gives you roughly 4 billion, a 63% drop from the 11 billion , (which is basically the drop from Shs.8 to Shs. 3 per minute).

There is however a little mitgation. Interconnection charges went down by half, so that gives Safaricom a Ksh 2 Billion saving (see page 24)

This would push the profit up to 6 Billion and reduce the drop to 5 Billion (45%).

Safaricom has free cashflows of 6 Billion (Page 20)

Not too bad is it? Well, the problem is that the ratios, those percentage drops could spook the market. The ARPU would also go down and thats a pretty important metric for a telco.

The Business Daily today also raised another interesting point, Safaricom lost a big dealer to Orange recently, if demand for Safaricom airtime wanes, more dealers may follow suit. This may be a serious problem for Big Green.

Zap has better merchant integration than M-Pesa (the KPLC and Nairobi Water time delays being a case in point) more Zap dealers will threaten Safaricoms dominance in this sector. M-Pesa is basically a customer retention tool (its about 9% of Safaricoms total revenue [Page 21]) so this is bad.

In short, things are thick for big green, the timing is also tricky, Bob Collymore clearly needs to hit the ground running.

In the meantime, apparently there was a Zain truck parked outside Safaricom HQ with packed with speakers blaring loud music, Specifically the Song "Bendover", check it out!

Friday, August 20, 2010

Black Swan - Thom Yorke

This is a Song I came across using Shazam. It was in an Episode of the 2006 series "Smith".

Its called Black Swan, its from the Eraser, the debut solo album of Thom Yorke the lead vocalist of the Band Radiohead.



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